“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
The investment philosophy practiced by Warren Buffett calls for investors to take a long-term horizon when making an investment, such as a two-decade holding period (or even longer), and reconsider making the investment in the first place if unable to envision holding the stock for at least five years. Today, we look at how such a long-term strategy would have done for investors in United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE: UPS) back in 2003, holding through to today.
| Start date: | 10/30/2003 |
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| End date: | 10/27/2023 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $71.62 | ||||
| End price/share: | $134.83 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 139.63 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 243.18 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $56.79 | ||||
| Total return: | 227.88% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 6.12% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $32,810.70 | ||||
As we can see, the two-decade investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 6.12%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $32,810.70 today (as of 10/27/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 227.88% (something to think about: how might UPS shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that United Parcel Service Inc paid investors a total of $56.79/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 6.48/share, we calculate that UPS has a current yield of approximately 4.81%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 6.48 against the original $71.62/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 6.72%.
Another great investment quote to think about:
“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd.” — Warren Buffett
