“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
A key lesson we can learn from Warren Buffett, is about how to think about a potential stock investment in the context of a longterm time horizon. Every investor in a stock has a choice: bite our fingernails over the shortterm ups and downs that are inevitable with the stock market, or, zero in on stocks we are comfortable to simply buy and hold for the long haul — maybe even a ten year holding period. Heck, investors can even choose to completely ignore the stock market’s shortrun quotations and instead go into their initial investment planning to hold on for years and years regardless of the fluctuations in price that might occur next.
Today, we examine what would have happened over a ten year holding period, had you decided back in 2013 to buy shares of PACCAR Inc. (NASD: PCAR) and simply hold through to today.
Start date:  08/16/2013 


End date:  08/15/2023  
Start price/share:  $36.49  
End price/share:  $85.07  
Starting shares:  274.05  
Ending shares:  390.87  
Dividends reinvested/share:  $16.97  
Total return:  232.51%  
Average annual return:  12.76%  
Starting investment:  $10,000.00  
Ending investment:  $33,242.49 
The above analysis shows the ten year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 12.76%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $33,242.49 today (as of 08/15/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 232.51% (something to think about: how might PCAR shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Always an important consideration with a dividendpaying company is: should we reinvest our dividends?Over the past 10 years, PACCAR Inc. has paid $16.97/share in dividends. For the above analysis, we assume that the investor reinvests dividends into new shares of stock (for the above calculations, the reinvestment is performed using closing price on exdiv date for that dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.08/share, we calculate that PCAR has a current yield of approximately 1.27%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.08 against the original $36.49/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 3.48%.
One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.” — Bernard Baruch