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“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

— Warren Buffett

The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a decade-long holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into Kellogg Co (NYSE: K)? Today, we examine the outcome of a decade-long investment into the stock back in 2013.

Start date: 02/22/2013


End date: 02/21/2023
Start price/share: $60.01
End price/share: $68.91
Starting shares: 166.64
Ending shares: 230.08
Dividends reinvested/share: $21.23
Total return: 58.55%
Average annual return: 4.72%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $15,861.75

As we can see, the decade-long investment result worked out as follows, with an annualized rate of return of 4.72%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $15,861.75 today (as of 02/21/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 58.55% (something to think about: how might K shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that Kellogg Co paid investors a total of $21.23/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 2.36/share, we calculate that K has a current yield of approximately 3.42%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 2.36 against the original $60.01/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 5.70%.

Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“While some might mistakenly consider value investing a mechanical tool for identifying bargains, it is actually a comprehensive investment philosophy that emphasizes the need to perform in-depth fundamental analysis, pursue long-term investment results, limit risk, and resist crowd psychology.” — Seth Klarman