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“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

— Warren Buffett

The investment philosophy practiced by Warren Buffett calls for investors to take a long-term horizon when making an investment, such as a ten year holding period (or even longer), and reconsider making the investment in the first place if unable to envision holding the stock for at least five years. Today, we look at how such a long-term strategy would have done for investors in Conagra Brands Inc (NYSE: CAG) back in 2012, holding through to today.

Start date: 12/28/2012


End date: 12/27/2022
Start price/share: $22.72
End price/share: $39.02
Starting shares: 440.14
Ending shares: 584.17
Dividends reinvested/share: $9.02
Total return: 127.94%
Average annual return: 8.59%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $22,803.23

As we can see, the ten year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 8.59%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $22,803.23 today (as of 12/27/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 127.94% (something to think about: how might CAG shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Many investors out there refuse to own any stock that lacks a dividend; in the case of Conagra Brands Inc, investors have received $9.02/share in dividends these past 10 years examined in the exercise above. This means total return was driven not just by share price, but also by the dividends received (and what the investor did with those dividends). For this exercise, what we’ve done with the dividends is to assume they are reinvestted — i.e. used to purchase additional shares (the calculations use closing price on ex-date).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.32/share, we calculate that CAG has a current yield of approximately 3.38%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.32 against the original $22.72/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 14.88%.

Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.” — Jesse Livermore