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“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

— Warren Buffett

One of the most important things investors can learn from Warren Buffett, is about how they approach their time horizon for an investment into a stock under consideration. Because immediately after buying shares of a given stock, investors will then be able to check on the day-to-day (and even minute-by-minute) market value. Some days the stock market will be up, other days down. These daily fluctuations can often distract from the long-term view. Today, we look at the result of a decade-long holding period for an investor who was considering Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (NASD: EXPD) back in 2012, bought the stock, ignored the market’s ups and downs, and simply held through to today.

Start date: 12/06/2012


End date: 12/05/2022
Start price/share: $36.99
End price/share: $111.82
Starting shares: 270.34
Ending shares: 308.90
Dividends reinvested/share: $9.04
Total return: 245.41%
Average annual return: 13.19%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $34,532.50

The above analysis shows the decade-long investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 13.19%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $34,532.50 today (as of 12/05/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 245.41% (something to think about: how might EXPD shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Beyond share price change, another component of EXPD’s total return these past 10 years has been the payment by Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. of $9.04/share in dividends to shareholders. Automatic reinvestment of dividends can be a wonderful way to compound returns, and for the above calculations we presume that dividends are reinvested into additional shares of stock. (For the purpose of these calcuations, the closing price on ex-date is used).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.34/share, we calculate that EXPD has a current yield of approximately 1.20%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.34 against the original $36.99/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 3.24%.

More investment wisdom to ponder:
“Confronted with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety.” — Benjamin Graham