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“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

— Warren Buffett

The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a five year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into FedEx Corp (NYSE: FDX)? Today, we examine the outcome of a five year investment into the stock back in 2017.

Start date: 12/15/2017


End date: 12/14/2022
Start price/share: $240.05
End price/share: $178.07
Starting shares: 41.66
Ending shares: 44.81
Dividends reinvested/share: $14.75
Total return: -20.21%
Average annual return: -4.42%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $7,976.92

As shown above, the five year investment result worked out poorly, with an annualized rate of return of -4.42%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $7,976.92 today (as of 12/14/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of -20.21% (something to think about: how might FDX shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that FedEx Corp paid investors a total of $14.75/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 4.6/share, we calculate that FDX has a current yield of approximately 2.58%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 4.6 against the original $240.05/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 1.07%.

One more investment quote to leave you with:
“Though tempting, trying to time the market is a loser’s game.” — Christopher Davis