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“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”

— Warren Buffett

Such a great quote from Warren Buffett, highlighting the importance of investment time horizon when considering making an investment. In the short run, who knows what the stock market will do? A week or two after buying any given stock, could the entire stock market fall out of bed? Quite possibly! Should that happen, how would you react? It is an excellent question to think about before hitting the buy button.

For investors who take a multi-year time horizon, the important thing is not what happens in the next week or two, but what the result will be over the long haul. Today, we look at the result investors of the year 2002 experienced, who considered an investment in shares of Advance Auto Parts Inc (NYSE: AAP) and decided upon a twenty year investment time horizon.

Start date: 12/16/2002


End date: 12/13/2022
Start price/share: $16.66
End price/share: $145.68
Starting shares: 600.24
Ending shares: 661.31
Dividends reinvested/share: $12.05
Total return: 863.39%
Average annual return: 11.99%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $96,350.59

The above analysis shows the twenty year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 11.99%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $96,350.59 today (as of 12/13/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 863.39% (something to think about: how might AAP shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that Advance Auto Parts Inc paid investors a total of $12.05/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 6/share, we calculate that AAP has a current yield of approximately 4.12%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 6 against the original $16.66/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 24.73%.

Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“Investors should always keep in mind that the most important metric is not the returns achieved but the returns weighed against the risks incurred. Ultimately, nothing should be more important to investors than the ability to sleep soundly at night.” — Seth Klarman