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“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”

— Warren Buffett

The investment philosophy practiced by Warren Buffett calls for investors to take a long-term horizon when making an investment, such as a two-decade holding period (or even longer), and reconsider making the investment in the first place if unable to envision holding the stock for at least five years. Today, we look at how such a long-term strategy would have done for investors in Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE: LMT) back in 2002, holding through to today.

Start date: 11/18/2002


End date: 11/17/2022
Start price/share: $49.30
End price/share: $472.77
Starting shares: 202.84
Ending shares: 346.82
Dividends reinvested/share: $96.22
Total return: 1,539.65%
Average annual return: 15.00%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $163,916.24

As shown above, the two-decade investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 15.00%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $163,916.24 today (as of 11/17/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 1,539.65% (something to think about: how might LMT shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Many investors out there refuse to own any stock that lacks a dividend; in the case of Lockheed Martin Corp, investors have received $96.22/share in dividends these past 20 years examined in the exercise above. This means total return was driven not just by share price, but also by the dividends received (and what the investor did with those dividends). For this exercise, what we’ve done with the dividends is to assume they are reinvestted — i.e. used to purchase additional shares (the calculations use closing price on ex-date).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 12/share, we calculate that LMT has a current yield of approximately 2.54%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 12 against the original $49.30/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 5.15%.

Another great investment quote to think about:
“We ignore outlooks and forecasts… we’re lousy at it and we admit it … everyone else is lousy too, but most people won’t admit it.” — Martin Whitman