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“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”

— Warren Buffett

Such a great quote from Warren Buffett, highlighting the importance of investment time horizon when considering making an investment. In the short run, who knows what the stock market will do? A week or two after buying any given stock, could the entire stock market fall out of bed? Quite possibly! Should that happen, how would you react? It is an excellent question to think about before hitting the buy button.

For investors who take a multi-year time horizon, the important thing is not what happens in the next week or two, but what the result will be over the long haul. Today, we look at the result investors of the year 2002 experienced, who considered an investment in shares of PACCAR Inc. (NASD: PCAR) and decided upon a two-decade investment time horizon.

Start date: 07/08/2002


End date: 07/06/2022
Start price/share: $12.53
End price/share: $81.32
Starting shares: 798.08
Ending shares: 1,532.55
Dividends reinvested/share: $33.66
Total return: 1,146.27%
Average annual return: 13.44%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $124,673.60

As shown above, the two-decade investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 13.44%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $124,673.60 today (as of 07/06/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 1,146.27% (something to think about: how might PCAR shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Beyond share price change, another component of PCAR’s total return these past 20 years has been the payment by PACCAR Inc. of $33.66/share in dividends to shareholders. Automatic reinvestment of dividends can be a wonderful way to compound returns, and for the above calculations we presume that dividends are reinvested into additional shares of stock. (For the purpose of these calcuations, the closing price on ex-date is used).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.36/share, we calculate that PCAR has a current yield of approximately 1.67%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.36 against the original $12.53/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 13.33%.

One more investment quote to leave you with:
“The idea that a bell rings to signal when to get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly fifty years in this business, I don’t know anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.” — Jack Bogle