“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a five year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)? Today, we examine the outcome of a five year investment into the stock back in 2017.
| Start date: | 07/17/2017 |
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| End date: | 07/14/2022 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $81.81 | ||||
| End price/share: | $78.55 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 122.23 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 149.18 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $17.11 | ||||
| Total return: | 17.18% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 3.22% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $11,715.04 | ||||
As we can see, the five year investment result worked out as follows, with an annualized rate of return of 3.22%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $11,715.04 today (as of 07/14/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 17.18% (something to think about: how might PSX shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Phillips 66 paid investors a total of $17.11/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.88/share, we calculate that PSX has a current yield of approximately 4.94%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.88 against the original $81.81/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 6.04%.
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” — Shelby Davis
