“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a five year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into HollyFrontier Corp (NYSE: HFC)? Today, we examine the outcome of a five year investment into the stock back in 2016.
| Start date: | 03/03/2016 |
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| End date: | 03/02/2021 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $35.58 | ||||
| End price/share: | $36.98 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 281.06 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 338.61 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $6.72 | ||||
| Total return: | 25.22% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 4.60% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $12,521.56 | ||||
As we can see, the five year investment result worked out as follows, with an annualized rate of return of 4.60%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $12,521.56 today (as of 03/02/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 25.22% (something to think about: how might HFC shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that HollyFrontier Corp paid investors a total of $6.72/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.4/share, we calculate that HFC has a current yield of approximately 3.79%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.4 against the original $35.58/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 10.65%.
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” — Phillip Fisher
