“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a twenty year holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Tyson Foods Inc (NYSE: TSN) back in 2001. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 03/16/2001 |
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| End date: | 03/15/2021 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $13.06 | ||||
| End price/share: | $76.58 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 765.70 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 993.32 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $9.61 | ||||
| Total return: | 660.68% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 10.67% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $76,025.64 | ||||
The above analysis shows the twenty year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 10.67%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $76,025.64 today (as of 03/15/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 660.68% (something to think about: how might TSN shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Tyson Foods Inc paid investors a total of $9.61/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.78/share, we calculate that TSN has a current yield of approximately 2.32%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.78 against the original $13.06/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 17.76%.
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“Value investing means really asking what are the best values, and not assuming that because something looks expensive that it is, or assuming that because a stock is down in price and trades at low multiples that it is a bargain.” — Bill Miller
