“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The investment philosophy practiced by Warren Buffett calls for investors to take a long-term horizon when making an investment, such as a ten year holding period (or even longer), and reconsider making the investment in the first place if unable to envision holding the stock for at least five years. Today, we look at how such a long-term strategy would have done for investors in ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) back in 2010, holding through to today.
| Start date: | 11/17/2010 |
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| End date: | 11/16/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $46.36 | ||||
| End price/share: | $38.08 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 215.70 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 302.41 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $19.22 | ||||
| Total return: | 15.16% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 1.42% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $11,515.15 | ||||
The above analysis shows the ten year investment result worked out as follows, with an annualized rate of return of 1.42%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $11,515.15 today (as of 11/16/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 15.16% (something to think about: how might COP shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that ConocoPhillips paid investors a total of $19.22/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.72/share, we calculate that COP has a current yield of approximately 4.52%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.72 against the original $46.36/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 9.75%.
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” — Mark Twain
