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“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

— Warren Buffett

Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a decade-long holding period possibly?

Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into Textron Inc (NYSE: TXT) back in 2010: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full decade-long investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 10 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.

Start date: 10/01/2010


End date: 09/30/2020
Start price/share: $20.75
End price/share: $36.09
Starting shares: 481.93
Ending shares: 493.23
Dividends reinvested/share: $0.80
Total return: 78.01%
Average annual return: 5.93%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $17,796.18

The above analysis shows the decade-long investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 5.93%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $17,796.18 today (as of 09/30/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 78.01% (something to think about: how might TXT shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that Textron Inc paid investors a total of $0.80/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of .08/share, we calculate that TXT has a current yield of approximately 0.22%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of .08 against the original $20.75/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 1.06%.

Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.'” — Sir John Templeton