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“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

— Warren Buffett

This inspiring quote from Warren Buffett teaches us the importance of considering our investment time horizon when approaching any given investment: Could we envision ourselves holding the stock we are considering for many years? Even a decade-long holding period potentially?

For “buy-and-hold” investors taking a long-term view, what’s important isn’t the short-term stock market fluctuations that will inevitably occur, but what happens over the long haul. Looking back 10 years to 2010, investors considering an investment into shares of HollyFrontier Corp (NYSE: HFC) may have been pondering this very question and thinking about their potential investment result over a full decade-long time horizon. Here’s how that would have worked out.

Start date: 09/01/2010


End date: 08/31/2020
Start price/share: $13.17
End price/share: $23.87
Starting shares: 759.30
Ending shares: 1,202.62
Dividends reinvested/share: $17.96
Total return: 187.07%
Average annual return: 11.12%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $28,719.26

As we can see, the decade-long investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 11.12%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $28,719.26 today (as of 08/31/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 187.07% (something to think about: how might HFC shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Beyond share price change, another component of HFC’s total return these past 10 years has been the payment by HollyFrontier Corp of $17.96/share in dividends to shareholders. Automatic reinvestment of dividends can be a wonderful way to compound returns, and for the above calculations we presume that dividends are reinvested into additional shares of stock. (For the purpose of these calcuations, the closing price on ex-date is used).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.4/share, we calculate that HFC has a current yield of approximately 5.87%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.4 against the original $13.17/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 44.57%.

One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“Your investor’s edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It’s something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.” — Peter Lynch