“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a five year holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Apple Inc (NASD: AAPL) back in 2014. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 10/01/2014 |
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| End date: | 09/30/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $99.18 | ||||
| End price/share: | $223.97 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 100.83 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 109.89 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $12.28 | ||||
| Total return: | 146.12% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 19.74% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $24,614.80 | ||||
As we can see, the five year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 19.74%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $24,614.80 today (as of 09/30/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 146.12% (something to think about: how might AAPL shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Apple Inc paid investors a total of $12.28/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.08/share, we calculate that AAPL has a current yield of approximately 1.38%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.08 against the original $99.18/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 1.39%.
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“If you’re looking for a home run, a great investment for five years or 10 years or more, then the only way to beat this enormous fog that covers the future is to identify a long-term trend that will give a particular business some sort of edge.” — Ralph Wanger
