“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a twenty year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into HP Inc (NYSE: HPQ)? Today, we examine the outcome of a twenty year investment into the stock back in 1999.
| Start date: | 06/25/1999 |
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| End date: | 06/24/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $42.06 | ||||
| End price/share: | $20.66 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 237.76 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 335.69 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $5.12 | ||||
| Total return: | -30.65% | ||||
| Average annual return: | -1.81% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $6,938.38 | ||||
The above analysis shows the twenty year investment result worked out poorly, with an annualized rate of return of -1.81%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $6,938.38 today (as of 06/24/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of -30.65% (something to think about: how might HPQ shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that HP Inc paid investors a total of $5.12/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of .6408/share, we calculate that HPQ has a current yield of approximately 3.10%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of .6408 against the original $42.06/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 7.37%.
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.” — Benjamin Graham
