“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a two-decade holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) back in 2003. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 05/19/2003 |
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| End date: | 05/17/2023 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $21.81 | ||||
| End price/share: | $368.07 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 458.51 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 679.78 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $40.19 | ||||
| Total return: | 2,402.05% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 17.46% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $250,250.16 | ||||
The above analysis shows the two-decade investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 17.46%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $250,250.16 today (as of 05/17/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 2,402.05% (something to think about: how might DE shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Deere & Co. paid investors a total of $40.19/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 5/share, we calculate that DE has a current yield of approximately 1.36%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 5 against the original $21.81/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 6.24%.
Another great investment quote to think about:
“It’s not how much money you make, but how much money you keep.” — Robert Kiyosaki
