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“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

— Warren Buffett

One of the most important things investors can learn from Warren Buffett, is about how they approach their time horizon for an investment into a stock under consideration. Because immediately after buying shares of a given stock, investors will then be able to check on the day-to-day (and even minute-by-minute) market value. Some days the stock market will be up, other days down. These daily fluctuations can often distract from the long-term view. Today, we look at the result of a five year holding period for an investor who was considering CF Industries Holdings Inc (NYSE: CF) back in 2017, bought the stock, ignored the market’s ups and downs, and simply held through to today.

Start date: 09/19/2017


End date: 09/16/2022
Start price/share: $35.54
End price/share: $98.59
Starting shares: 281.37
Ending shares: 322.31
Dividends reinvested/share: $6.20
Total return: 217.77%
Average annual return: 26.05%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $31,780.69

The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 26.05%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $31,780.69 today (as of 09/16/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 217.77% (something to think about: how might CF shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that CF Industries Holdings Inc paid investors a total of $6.20/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.6/share, we calculate that CF has a current yield of approximately 1.62%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.6 against the original $35.54/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 4.56%.

Another great investment quote to think about:
“If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.” — George Soros