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“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

— Warren Buffett

The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a decade-long period?

Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2011, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about Dollar Tree Inc (NASD: DLTR), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a decade-long holding period.

Start date: 11/25/2011


End date: 11/23/2021
Start price/share: $38.31
End price/share: $144.71
Starting shares: 261.03
Ending shares: 261.03
Dividends reinvested/share: $0.00
Total return: 277.73%
Average annual return: 14.21%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $37,774.56

The above analysis shows the decade-long investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 14.21%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $37,774.56 today (as of 11/23/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 277.73% (something to think about: how might DLTR shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

More investment wisdom to ponder:
“Sometimes buying early on the way down looks like being wrong, but it isn’t.” — Seth Klarman