“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a five year holding period possibly?
Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into Illumina Inc (NASD: ILMN) back in 2016: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full five year investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 5 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.
| Start date: | 11/07/2016 |
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| End date: | 11/04/2021 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $137.08 | ||||
| End price/share: | $421.83 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 72.95 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 72.95 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $0.00 | ||||
| Total return: | 207.73% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 25.25% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $30,766.99 | ||||
As we can see, the five year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 25.25%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $30,766.99 today (as of 11/04/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 207.73% (something to think about: how might ILMN shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Another great investment quote to think about:
“The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Galbraith
