“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a ten year holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Dollar Tree Inc (NASD: DLTR) back in 2011. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 10/21/2011 |
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| End date: | 10/20/2021 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $40.03 | ||||
| End price/share: | $101.34 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 249.81 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 249.81 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $0.00 | ||||
| Total return: | 153.16% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 9.73% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $25,320.64 | ||||
As we can see, the ten year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 9.73%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $25,320.64 today (as of 10/20/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 153.16% (something to think about: how might DLTR shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“There’s a virtuous cycle when people have to defend challenges to their ideas. Any gaps in thinking or analysis become clear pretty quickly when smart people ask good, logical questions.” — Joel Greenblatt
