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“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

— Warren Buffett

The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?

A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a five year holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Eastman Chemical Co (NYSE: EMN) back in 2016. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:

Start date: 09/15/2016


End date: 09/14/2021
Start price/share: $64.74
End price/share: $104.50
Starting shares: 154.46
Ending shares: 178.68
Dividends reinvested/share: $12.16
Total return: 86.72%
Average annual return: 13.30%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $18,670.22

As shown above, the five year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 13.30%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $18,670.22 today (as of 09/14/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 86.72% (something to think about: how might EMN shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that Eastman Chemical Co paid investors a total of $12.16/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 2.76/share, we calculate that EMN has a current yield of approximately 2.64%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 2.76 against the original $64.74/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 4.08%.

Another great investment quote to think about:
“Though tempting, trying to time the market is a loser’s game.” — Christopher Davis