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“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

— Warren Buffett

Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a decade-long holding period possibly?

Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into AmerisourceBergen Corp. (NYSE: ABC) back in 2011: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full decade-long investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 10 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.

Start date: 05/12/2011


End date: 05/11/2021
Start price/share: $42.44
End price/share: $120.10
Starting shares: 235.63
Ending shares: 275.79
Dividends reinvested/share: $12.17
Total return: 231.22%
Average annual return: 12.72%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $33,135.59

The above analysis shows the decade-long investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 12.72%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $33,135.59 today (as of 05/11/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 231.22% (something to think about: how might ABC shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that AmerisourceBergen Corp. paid investors a total of $12.17/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.76/share, we calculate that ABC has a current yield of approximately 1.47%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.76 against the original $42.44/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 3.46%.

Another great investment quote to think about:
“In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.” — Benjamin Graham