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“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

— Warren Buffett

The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a five year period?

Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2015, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASD: ORLY), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a five year holding period.

Start date: 07/09/2015


End date: 07/08/2020
Start price/share: $231.38
End price/share: $420.49
Starting shares: 43.22
Ending shares: 43.22
Dividends reinvested/share: $0.00
Total return: 81.73%
Average annual return: 12.68%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $18,170.89

As we can see, the five year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 12.68%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $18,170.89 today (as of 07/08/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 81.73% (something to think about: how might ORLY shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

One more investment quote to leave you with:
“If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.” — Peter Lynch