“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a five year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into Northern Trust Corp (NASD: NTRS)? Today, we examine the outcome of a five year investment into the stock back in 2015.
| Start date: | 05/14/2015 |
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| End date: | 05/13/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $75.01 | ||||
| End price/share: | $70.25 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 133.32 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 148.88 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $9.40 | ||||
| Total return: | 4.59% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 0.90% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $10,458.43 | ||||
As we can see, the five year investment result worked out as follows, with an annualized rate of return of 0.90%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $10,458.43 today (as of 05/13/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 4.59% (something to think about: how might NTRS shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Northern Trust Corp paid investors a total of $9.40/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 2.8/share, we calculate that NTRS has a current yield of approximately 3.99%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 2.8 against the original $75.01/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 5.32%.
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“Sometimes buying early on the way down looks like being wrong, but it isn’t.” — Seth Klarman
