“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
One of the most important things investors can learn from Warren Buffett, is about how they approach their time horizon for an investment into a stock under consideration. Because immediately after buying shares of a given stock, investors will then be able to check on the day-to-day (and even minute-by-minute) market value. Some days the stock market will be up, other days down. These daily fluctuations can often distract from the long-term view. Today, we look at the result of a five year holding period for an investor who was considering Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) back in 2015, bought the stock, ignored the market’s ups and downs, and simply held through to today.
| Start date: | 03/02/2015 |
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| End date: | 02/27/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $103.22 | ||||
| End price/share: | $139.12 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 96.88 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 111.06 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $16.96 | ||||
| Total return: | 54.51% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 9.10% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $15,449.57 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 9.10%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $15,449.57 today (as of 02/27/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 54.51% (something to think about: how might JNJ shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Johnson & Johnson paid investors a total of $16.96/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.8/share, we calculate that JNJ has a current yield of approximately 2.73%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.8 against the original $103.22/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 2.64%.
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Galbraith
