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“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

— Warren Buffett

This inspiring quote from Warren Buffett teaches us the importance of considering our investment time horizon when approaching any given investment: Could we envision ourselves holding the stock we are considering for many years? Even a five year holding period potentially?

For “buy-and-hold” investors taking a long-term view, what’s important isn’t the short-term stock market fluctuations that will inevitably occur, but what happens over the long haul. Looking back 5 years to 2015, investors considering an investment into shares of TransDigm Group Inc (NYSE: TDG) may have been pondering this very question and thinking about their potential investment result over a full five year time horizon. Here’s how that would have worked out.

Start date: 01/28/2015


End date: 01/27/2020
Start price/share: $203.00
End price/share: $650.51
Starting shares: 49.26
Ending shares: 65.29
Dividends reinvested/share: $108.50
Total return: 324.75%
Average annual return: 33.54%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $42,467.52

As we can see, the five year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 33.54%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $42,467.52 today (as of 01/27/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 324.75% (something to think about: how might TDG shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that TransDigm Group Inc paid investors a total of $108.50/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 32.5/share, we calculate that TDG has a current yield of approximately 5.00%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 32.5 against the original $203.00/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 2.46%.

One more investment quote to leave you with:
“All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out.” — Peter Lynch