“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a ten year period?
Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2009, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a ten year holding period.
| Start date: | 10/08/2009 |
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| End date: | 10/07/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $17.08 | ||||
| End price/share: | $77.70 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 585.48 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 683.94 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $8.62 | ||||
| Total return: | 431.42% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 18.17% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $53,121.58 | ||||
The above analysis shows the ten year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 18.17%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $53,121.58 today (as of 10/07/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 431.42% (something to think about: how might DFS shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Discover Financial Services paid investors a total of $8.62/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.76/share, we calculate that DFS has a current yield of approximately 2.27%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.76 against the original $17.08/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 13.29%.
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.” — Warren Buffett
