“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a five year holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of CME Group (NASD: CME) back in 2014. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 07/01/2014 |
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| End date: | 06/28/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $70.99 | ||||
| End price/share: | $194.11 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 140.86 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 174.43 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $25.68 | ||||
| Total return: | 238.58% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 27.66% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $33,860.48 | ||||
As shown above, the five year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 27.66%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $33,860.48 today (as of 06/28/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 238.58% (something to think about: how might CME shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that CME Group paid investors a total of $25.68/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3/share, we calculate that CME has a current yield of approximately 1.55%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3 against the original $70.99/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 2.18%.
Another great investment quote to think about:
“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” — Robert Arnott
