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“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

— Warren Buffett

The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a decade-long holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into Arconic Inc (NYSE: ARNC)? Today, we examine the outcome of a decade-long investment into the stock back in 2009.

Start date: 07/08/2009


End date: 07/05/2019
Start price/share: $7.09
End price/share: $26.10
Starting shares: 1,410.44
Ending shares: 1,571.65
Dividends reinvested/share: $1.30
Total return: 310.20%
Average annual return: 15.16%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $41,006.11

As shown above, the decade-long investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 15.16%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $41,006.11 today (as of 07/05/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 310.20% (something to think about: how might ARNC shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Many investors out there refuse to own any stock that lacks a dividend; in the case of Arconic Inc, investors have received $1.30/share in dividends these past 10 years examined in the exercise above. This means total return was driven not just by share price, but also by the dividends received (and what the investor did with those dividends). For this exercise, what we’ve done with the dividends is to assume they are reinvestted — i.e. used to purchase additional shares (the calculations use closing price on ex-date).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of .08/share, we calculate that ARNC has a current yield of approximately 0.31%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of .08 against the original $7.09/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 4.37%.

One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“While it might seem that anyone can be a value investor, the essential characteristics of this type of investor-patience, discipline, and risk aversion-may well be genetically determined.” — Seth Klarman