“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a decade-long period?
Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2009, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about Varian Medical Systems Inc (NYSE: VAR), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a decade-long holding period.
| Start date: | 05/07/2009 |
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| End date: | 05/06/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $30.68 | ||||
| End price/share: | $137.51 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 325.95 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 325.95 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $0.00 | ||||
| Total return: | 348.21% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 16.18% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $44,822.10 | ||||
The above analysis shows the decade-long investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 16.18%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $44,822.10 today (as of 05/06/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 348.21% (something to think about: how might VAR shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.” — William Feather
