“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a two-decade period?
Today, let’s look backwards in time to 1999, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about Lowe’s Companies Inc (NYSE: LOW), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a two-decade holding period.
| Start date: | 05/17/1999 |
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| End date: | 05/14/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $13.67 | ||||
| End price/share: | $105.75 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 731.53 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 925.75 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $10.98 | ||||
| Total return: | 878.98% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 12.08% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $97,911.53 | ||||
The above analysis shows the two-decade investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 12.08%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $97,911.53 today (as of 05/14/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 878.98% (something to think about: how might LOW shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Lowe’s Companies Inc paid investors a total of $10.98/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.92/share, we calculate that LOW has a current yield of approximately 1.82%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.92 against the original $13.67/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 13.31%.
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.” — Charlie Munger
