“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a five year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM)? Today, we examine the outcome of a five year investment into the stock back in 2014.
| Start date: | 05/29/2014 |
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| End date: | 05/28/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $101.27 | ||||
| End price/share: | $72.61 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 98.75 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 118.62 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $15.22 | ||||
| Total return: | -13.87% | ||||
| Average annual return: | -2.94% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $8,613.93 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out poorly, with an annualized rate of return of -2.94%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $8,613.93 today (as of 05/28/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of -13.87% (something to think about: how might XOM shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Exxon Mobil Corp paid investors a total of $15.22/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.48/share, we calculate that XOM has a current yield of approximately 4.79%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.48 against the original $101.27/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 4.73%.
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.” — Seth Klarman
